As Uganda continues to experience the second wave of COVID 19, planning agency National Planning Authority (NPA) has projected a spike in the pandemic with a total of 7,214 new cases for the two weeks from 27th June to 3rd July to 10th July.
According to Dr. Joseph Muvawala, the NPA Executive Director, the COVID 19 curve, as it was the case in June will keep rising and will reach its peak in mid-July. This, according to him implies that COVID 19 will reach its maximum peak in mid-July.
“The model thus indicates that measures of partial lockdown that had been put in place on June 6th 2021 were not effective in terms of curbing the spread of the virus especially the transmissibility of new variants and decreased compliance levels,” he stated.
Muvawala lauded the full lockdown measures which have seen cases start to reduce. The Endemic Epidemic model was developed in partnership with the Pennsylvania State University.
However, he said, using a Ugandan made model developed in March 2020 that projects the cases of Covid-19 in two weeks, they have established that the cases will slightly reduce, averaging at 1,037 new infections per day.
He asked Ugandans to be patient throughout the remaining days of the lockdown to avoid a possible third wave of the pandemic.
Data warns Ugandans on complacency
Muvawala said that the released data is an indicator and warning against complacency in established public health prevention procedures against Covid-19. The public is advised to strictly adhere to the SOPs to slow the rising cases &the consequences on the health sector.
“Internal factors are dominant contributors of new cases in the country; effectiveness of lockdown measures, capacity of health systems, population structure in terms of age & underlying conditions, population density, access to health services.”